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Obama and the Supremes


The oral arguments are over in the Supreme Court and now the guessing game begins. It is fascinating to watch this all unfold as we are truly witnessing critical legal history. This decision, no matter what it is, will be studied in law schools for decades to come.

Sadly, I am not sure that the American people really understand how broad reaching this decision is? It is way past Obamacare or even healthcare. It is a key constitutional decision that will impact generations and will set a course for congress regarding commerce in the US.

While it is true that the Supreme Court has overturned legislation passed by congress, re commerce, more than 150 times, this is different. We are really debating several things in this case:

1.      Is an individual healthcare mandate constitutional?

2.      Can the mandate be severed from the PPACA law?

3.      Can the Federal Government dictate individual choice in commerce nationwide?



As you can see these are not small issues and will have a big impact on many segments of our country and its economy. The decisions the court makes by June will naturally affect the upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections.



The oral arguments were very interesting. As expected the 4 liberal judges were clearly trying to find ways to uphold the constitutionality of the law and the 4 conservative judges were doing the opposite. Judge Kennedy who is so often the swing vote in this Supreme Court was a surprise. His questions would lead one to believe that he will strike down the provision. However, oral arguments do not dictate the opinions of each judge as we have seen many times in recent history.



President Obama made a huge tactical error by delivering a veiled threat to the court last week and his justice department is now on the hot seat in the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. The judge in a case there, after hearing the President’s statement about “unelected judges shooting down legislation passed by a duly elected congress”, has demanded that the DOJ deliver a very specific explanation of what the President thinks the Court’s powers are. This is getting heated and the DOJ response will be interesting to say the least.



I have always felt that the Supreme Court would try to find a way to compromise on this critical case. I say compromise because that is as close as I can describe it. I suspect they will rule that the individual mandate is a tax and that it is constitutional. Thus leaving the law primarily intact and allowing the administration and HHS to implement this massive healthcare program.



This would be a sad outcome as it will leave both sides somewhat deflated but not defeated. This will lead to more ridiculous debate and an outcome that will surely further hurt the American people and our fragile economic recovery.



I for one, am hoping for a slam dunk either way so that we can have a true debate about healthcare in the US. All PPACA has done is further regulate the insurance industry, drive up costs and leave even more uninsured than before it passed. It has, however, done one good thing -  it has scared many of the greedy parties to the healthcare industry and for the first time several are having honest discussions about what can be done to really fix it.



If the administration wins hands down the Republicans will have huge hurdles ahead. Can they beat the President in November without a win? Or does this give them a huge platform to run on? If the President is re-elected how soon will we have National Healthcare? Will he attempt to do it prior to the end of his second term or will he just put all the pieces in place so that it is a forgone conclusion?



If the entire law gets struck down by the Supremes, what will this do to the Democrats? Will the President be able to win re-election? With his masterpiece legislation in flames will he be able to fix healthcare in his second term or will he turn tail as Clinton did and leave it for another President to handle?



I don’t know about you but I can’t wait to see the outcome to this sitcom – Obama & The Supremes. (sounds like a bad band name) Bring on the popcorn!

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