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The COVID debacle

Well its been a long time since I posted anything. Just been too busy with work.

COVID 19 is here and I am so sad and disappointed about what the world has done. I have learned a massive lesson and not a good one. Actually we should all be very concerned about what has happened and I don't mean just the virus.

So few disclaimers so I can avoid hate mail.
  • I am deeply concerned about death - any single death. Everyone is a tragedy
  • I am not a republican I am an Independent
  • I have been in the healthcare business for over 40 years - so I know a fair amount
  • I do not rely on any specific source for news - I verify everything myself
  • Most of the stats I will quote are US based although I may add a few others
In 2009 the world faced a pandemic called H1N1. It like Coronavirus was a virus with little or no data available. WHO declared it as a pandemic just as they did COVID 19. On the day that happened the worldwide reaction was very muted. In the US as a comparison the stock market declined 53 points versus the nearly 2000 points when COVID was announced.

60.8 Million Americans got H1N1 and over 13,000 people died from it in the US - 450,000 plus worldwide. No countries close their borders; no non essential businesses were closed and for the most part life continued. The biggest change we saw in the US was warnings to wash your hands and not cough on each other. We also saw a big increase in hand sanitizers in many public places, buildings and stores. We clearly chose to use Herd Immunity although that was never officially said anywhere. Unemployment did not spike although it was high due to the recession. We saw no specific decline in the economy but we were in a recession from 2008.

In 2019 we lost 49,000 Americans to the flu and that is with a vaccine. The flu kills between 25,000 and 60,000 Americans every year. Our vaccines can't keep up with it as the strains vary. Some years we do better than others. I am not making light of this death rate - it is horrible. Funny part is if we had listened for the past decade we could have cut that number in at least half by just doing some of the things we are all doing now - wash your hands, use sanitizer, social distance in flu season, touch your face less, wear masks or gloves when in high exposure areas and use common sense. But we have not because we have accepted the reality of the flu. No mass hysteria and no economic shut downs. Actually sad when one thinks about it.

COVID shows up and what we have seen is truly unbelievable. We have under 2 million people with it and less than 90,000 have died from it. (I know the news says that 110,000+ have died from it but that is erroneous. The CDC sent out a directive to healthcare providers saying list every death as COVID even if patient died from a co-morbidity or if the provider was unsure. So epidemiologists are saying that at least 2/3 of the death toll is incorrectly assigned.) Also worldwide we are just at 400,000 deaths (again an inflated number) which still is below what H1N1 was.

We have shut down the world economy; we have closed all the schools; we have shuttered all non essential businesses; and virtually all travel has ceased. We have created panic and hysteria. The economy is now in a recession and is headed to a depression. This week we saw over 30 million Americans unemployed - that's nearly 20% of the entire workforce. All elective surgeries have been cancelled and most states are asking people to stay home. We are all wearing masks, social distancing, wearing gloves and running scared. We have issued a stimulus of $2.2 Trillion which is 47% of the entire US annual budget for 2020. We have issued another $400B business protection package. And more being considered by Congress.

Of the approximate 6300 hospitals in the US the majority are struggling to viable. They are not overrun with COVID patients and actually have been furloughing employees. We have more ventilators than we know what to do with (exception maybe NYC). Most health care workers in the US have not even treated a COVID patient.  

So how did this happen. Not the virus the reaction. Time will show that the reaction will be far worse than the actual virus. (Challenge me in December if I am wrong). This entire reaction was the work of social media and the main stream media - feeding off each other. Sure there is some political engineering going on too but that happens whenever there is a crisis. 

Social media and the main stream media created this crisis. Let me clarify. Is the virus real - yes. Is it dangerous - yes. Is it contagious - yes. Should we be doing things to stop it - yes. Is it worse than H1N1 or the flu - maybe but not by much. Is the reaction we have had equal to the threat -NO.

We will get past COVID but we will not recover from the economic catastrophe anytime soon. I am going to go out on a limb and say there are scholars who are saying the economic crisis will cause more deaths worldwide than the pandemic. Starvation, suicide, murder, lack of health insurance and more will all contribute. An early estimate is 135,000 people in the US alone. I don't agree with this but I do think it will have massive effects on the US and the world. Time will tell.

I would hate to be the one to decide do I open up the economy or not. There is no right answer or easy answer. And it needs to be evaluated by location and population. Tough decisions and tough times ahead. 

We all need to really fear what the power of media has done. We need to worry about how this might happen again in the future. We need to evaluate how much we are going to allow this media scare change our ways of life long term. Everyone is talking about the "New Normal". there should be a slow return to the old normal. We should learn from this but not use it as a tool to socially reengineer society. Let your voice be heard 

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