Romney vs. Obama
Well the country and all the Republicans are a buzz with Mitt Romney's apparent victory over Barrack Obama in last week’s debate. The talking heads can't stop talking about it and the pollsters are going crazy with new polls every day. Even some die hard Democrats are a bit worried. I had one ask me if I thought Obama was ill last Wednesday.
I hate to be the one rational voice in the crowd but here I go:
Romney clearly was stronger than Obama last week but he is far from a winner. He waffled on a number of subjects and he missed a bunch of facts. (The good news so did Obama). He won a skirmish not the war. He has two more debates with the President and there is a VP debate on Thursday.
It was great for nearly 67 million Americans to see Romney and realize that he is not just a rich guy but a real person and one with some good ideas and a deep devotion to his country and its people. To see that he is a true gentlemen and that he cares for the 47% who will not vote for him. I am not sure that he changed a bunch of minds but he did put the Democrats on notice that he was a real candidate.
He can't rest on his laurels. He has a lot of thinking to do and he has to firm up many issues before the next debate on October 16th. For example this whole taxation issue. His cuts of 20% to all American tax payers while politically attractive would result in a $4.6 trillion dollar hole. No analysis I have found says that he can fill that hole by closing some tax loopholes and deductions. He needs to be prepared to discuss this because Obama will attack this again next week. If he left the rich at their current tax rate (35%) but gave the tax break of 20% to other taxpayers this would decrease the size of the gap and then maybe the elimination of deductions and loopholes might fill that gap. I have not seen any studies on this but if I were his team I would be on this ASAP. A 20% cut for middle class America would buy him a bunch of votes.
Healthcare is a big issue and I thought he did a mediocre job on that subject in the first debate. He spent most of his time defending what he did in Massachusetts rather than telling America the truth about Obamacare. He needs to hammer home some key points on healthcare next week. He needs to explain that there will be $60 billion of new insurance company taxes starting in 2013 and that all of those will be passed on to the consumer. He needs to tell Americans about the new 3.8% tax on capital gains for Medicare. Yes it applies to folks making over $200K but it is only a precursor to a new tax for all. Seniors in particular need to know that some of their real estate transactions may get this new 3.8% tax. He needs to raise the Independent Payment Advisory Board again but take a new tact. The IPAB will be making all kinds of critical decisions about the levels of Medicare payments we see under Obamacare. Mitt needs to stress that these cuts in Medicare payments will ultimately cause cost shifting to the private sector and premiums will increase. (There is s ton of historical proof of this trend). He needs to talk about the cost of exchanges (over $1 trillion to fully implement) and that some 30 million Americans (all under 65) will still have no coverage after Obamacare is fully implemented in 2022. And yes, he needs to talk about all the cuts to Medicare even though most of them will be in what is paid to providers. These cuts will increase cost shifting significantly and will drive up insurance premiums for all insured Americans. He needs to challenge Obama on lifting the lifetime maximums on all plans thus allowing providers to escalate the cost of high level complex care – again driving up premiums. We practically never see any health claims over $3 million so why make it unlimited? We are literally asking providers to find a way to drive up total costs.
He needs to add some more specifics to his plans. I understand that a presidential candidate can’t telegraph all the details of his plans as this would allow the opposition to prepare a defense and it would give the incumbent an upper hand. I get the political posturing but if he is to win this election the American people need a bit more. Tease them with some details – just enough to excite them but not enough to give the opposition much fodder.
He needs to be clear about immigration. This is going to be a topic and one that he has to have a firm stand on. He has only 28 days till the election and this is not a time to be waffling. Talk about his plan and court the Latino vote.
His foreign policy stance is becoming a bit clearer but he needs to be ready to defend it next Thursday because Obama will attack that area for sure. He needs to fight back and point out the debacle at the Libyan embassy on 9/11. The administration is very vulnerable here and he can score some big points by showing that they botched the defense of the embassy; got 4 people killed and have waffled on their stories over and over again. Show the total lack of leadership. Ask the President why he went on the View instead of meeting with the Prime Minister of Israel?
He needs to be careful about discussing the defense budget. Saying we will have a strong military is critical, saying that we are going to add $2 billion in funding while we are making significant cuts in domestic, social programs is not wise. I think he should say that he is going to get us out of Afghanistan and that the funds spent on the war will be evaluated for strengthening our national defense budget. He needs to leave the current military spend alone for now – it is not popular.
He has to kill all this Big Bird rhetoric and quickly. It is an easy hit. Tell the American people that as President he will have to make some very tough choices to fix our economic woes and while he loves PBS it is not critical to the nation in this time of crisis. He should publicly offer to donate $1 million of his own money to PBS for matching contributions. He can even joke and suggest that PBS ask the Chinese for some funding as they too love Big Bird.
So while I am pleased that Romney did well last week I think we have a long and very tough road ahead and Obama is coming back strong that you can count on. Mitt has to show the Americans people he is the better choice even if he is not the best choice. Obama has a dismal record and Romney has the task of showing the American people just how bad it is and why four more years of that leadership will ruin this great country.
I would not be surprised if Smiling Joe did not start that with some vicious attacks on Paul Ryan this week. I unlike most republicans don’t believe that Joe will be easily beat on Wednesday night. I hope I am wrong but I suspect he will be on the offensive and let’s not forget Joe is a street fighter. Ryan better have all his facts rock-solid and be ready to attack the administration’s record on many points. This VP debate could be the best of all since Joe has an Irish temper and if Paul can pull it out we might see his true colors.
So get the popcorn ready and sit back and watch the fights begin. Good luck Mitt Romney as you have a very steep hill to climb. We are all pulling for you but don’t let this minor victory go to your head or an Obama sharp left hook might.