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The VP Debates

Well I hate to ever say I told you so but I said in my Debate blog a few days ago Biden would come out on the offensive. Biden was on his game last night and clearly won in a few areas.

He had a strong mastery of the facts and Ryan did not challenge them enough. He clearly dominated the time and won most points. And surprisingly he he won is addressing the American people.

I know this was Paul Ryan's first debate and he was nervous. It also appeared he was thrown by the attack of Biden and decided to respond by trying to act "Vice presidential" and not lower himself to Joe's status. This was a mistake and it cost him.

Much has been made about Joe Biden's demeanor and smirking by the Republicans but it appears the American people were not put off by his behavior and in most cases they seemed to like it. In a debate it is okay to show some emotion and while I think Biden went over board I don't think Ryan showed enough. I agree that Biden's fake smile and false teeth drove me crazy but that is just a personal bias.

Ryan had so many chances to nail Biden and he missed most of them. He had opportunities to force Biden into the weeds on a few issues to test his knowledge of the facts and he never tried. My guess is if he had Biden would have folded. He let Biden off the hook on lots of big issues and that hurt Mitt for next week.

On defense he was okay but he still blew it on this taxation issue. I warned last week that Mitt Romney had failed in this critical area in his debate and that the campaign needed to sure that up before this debate but sadly they did not. The tax plan is appearing to be indefensible and unfeasible. A 20% cut in taxes for all Americans would generate $4.6 trillion shortfall in tax revenue over the next 10 years. That has been confirmed. So how can that gap be covered? it is very doubtful that it can be done with cutting a few deductions on the rich which means that the holy grail of deductions would have to be shut down - housing interest deductions. Biden saw this last night and nailed it. Ryan never came back and assured Americans that the home interest deduction would be protected.

I say again Romney needs to figure this out and fix it before next weeks debate or it is going to cost him the election. My recommendation is as follows:

Say we understand that the tax code is complex and while we still believe we could close the gap a 20% across the board tax cut would generate, we have decided to take a more simplified approach with the same result:

We will cut taxes for all Americans making under $1 Million a year this will make the revenue shortfall smaller (he has to state what this will be - $3 trillion?). We will leave the current Bush tax rates in place for those making over $1 Million. We will still make several cuts in deductions, which have to be negotiated with Congress but we guarantee that the home interest deduction will not be eliminated. (please note the word eliminated - it can still be changed). Our studies show we can close the gap with these deduction cuts and thus keep our promise of not increasing the deficit.

The middle class and small businesses will feel the positive effects of these tax cuts thus stimulating the economy and driving up employment rates over the next 4 years.

So what does last night debate mean to the election?
  • It will not affect the polls very much by Tuesday.
  • It clearly shows the Romney campaign where they need to fix policy and toughen up
  • It guarantees that Obama will come out swinging next week
  • It give Romney an opportunity to show the American people that he is strong and can fight
Joe Bidden was well coached and did exactly what he was sent in to do. Mission accomplished! It is now critical that Romney get ready for a real tough fight next week. here is what he needs to focus on even though I know the questions from the "undecided voters" will be random.

  • Hit Obama on his failed record - hammer repeatedly the deficit, unemployment, weak economy, failed foreign policy, outrageous spending (Obamacare)
  • Attack Obamacare in depth:
    • New taxes coming - $60 billion on insurance companies to passed on in premium hikes and 3.8% on home sales/gains
    • The independent Board deciding Medicare cuts - no specific qualifications; appointed by the President and broad authority
    • The $716 b in Medicare cuts - those cuts to providers will cause cost shifting further driving up middle class health premiums
    • Health care spending is not inflating as fast because of high unemployment and low incomes that have decreased utilization - not because of Obamacare
    • Folks can't keep the plans they ahve or like because they can't afford them. Premuims have gone up $2500 a year since Obamacare was established and is expected to increase another $3000 with all the new taxes and probably more once the cost shifting from Medicare starts.
    • Exchanges will have limited plan choices and cost billions to establish while CBO says there will still be 30 million uninsured after Obamacare implemented.
  • The Economy - yes you inherited a declining economy but your party controlled the House and the Senate from 2006 so you can't blame this on President Bush only. And when you took office for two years you had control of the House and Senate yet failed to fix the problems - you actually made them worse. President Bush never had both the House and Senate in his Presidency.
  • GM was not your victory. If it had gone through bankruptcy we would probably see the same result we have now and it would be free to compete without government oversight. You nor I can say with certainty how many jobs were saved by the bailout.
  • 23 million Americans are underemployed or unemployed. The unemployment rate is over 14% in many states and work for young people is very hard to find. Small business employs over 2/3 of all Americans and yet you want them to pay nearly 40% in federal taxes? How does that stimulate hiring?
  • Your foreign policy is a failure. The Middle East is far worse than when you became President. America is disrespected and not feared. Sure you found Bin Laden but Bush started the search. We lost an ambassador and several staff because your administration failed to give the embassy the appropriate protection. Iran is progressing with nuclear capability and all you have done is sanctions. You want to cut defense spending by $1 trillion and I want to keep it the same.
I hope the Romney camp is better prepared and more aggressive on Tuesday than last night because if they are not the results on November 6th could be devastating.

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